Modelon (MODEL) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 ARR returned to sequential growth for the first time in over a year, while adjusted EBIT improved YoY for a seventh consecutive quarter.

• Services growth and new software wins partly offset lower software revenue and ARR versus the prior year.

Financial highlights

• Q3 net revenue was MSEK 15.9, down 2% YoY; software revenue fell 9% to MSEK 12.2, while service revenue rose 31% to MSEK 3.7.

• 9M net revenue was MSEK 47.8, down 13% YoY; software revenue declined 15% to MSEK 36.4 and service revenue fell 7% to MSEK 11.4.

• Q3 adjusted EBIT was MSEK -3.1 versus -4.0; 9M adjusted EBIT was MSEK -14.7 versus -21.7, excluding restructuring costs.

• Q3 net loss was MSEK 3.0 versus 3.9; 9M net loss was MSEK 15.1 versus 27.6. EPS before dilution was SEK -0.17 and -0.83, respectively.

Outlook and guidance

• Long-term targets remain ARR growth above 20% and operating profit margin above 20%; targets are ambitions, not forecasts.

• Positive cash flow is still expected from Q1 2028; multi-year deals and additional research grants could accelerate the path.

• Further operating income improvement is expected from ARR growth and continued cost control; quarterly cash flow will vary with deal and renewal timing.