Moderna (MRNA) Analyst Day 2026 summary

Strategy and platform

• Shared mRNA chemistry, delivery and manufacturing processes aim to improve R&D efficiency, development speed, technical success and capital productivity.

• Three established modalities span infectious disease vaccines, individualized cancer treatment and rare genetic liver diseases; investment covers four horizons, from approved products to foundational technologies and emerging modalities.

• Horizon 2 includes mRNA-2808, a T-cell engager for multiple myeloma; Horizon 3 includes in vivo CAR-T and CAR-M programs advancing toward the clinic.

• LUCY combines AI-generated hypotheses, robotics and experimental feedback to accelerate mRNA and lipid research and build proprietary capabilities.

• Priorities include renewed growth, improved vaccine profitability, disciplined pipeline investment and a strong balance sheet; AI, automation, data and experimentation target higher productivity across operations.

Financial framework and capital allocation

• 2026 revenue growth guidance rose from up to 10% to 15%-25%; revenue midpoint is $2.3B, implying 20% growth, and 3Q26 revenue was $1.3B.

• 2026 gross margin is projected at ~65%, excluding the $0.9B litigation charge, versus 55% in 2025; the framework targets ~10 percentage points of expansion.

• The prior 2027 cash-cost framework was pulled forward into 2026, with 2026 cash costs estimated at ~$3.8B; costs are expected at ~$4B in 2027 and $4B-$4.5B annually through 2030, primarily driven by oncology.

• Infectious disease has an approximately $2.3B investment envelope intended to fund future pipeline investment through business cash flow; investment in intismeran and mRNA-encoded development is expected to rise with clinical progress and proof points.

• 2026 year-end liquidity is estimated at $9.1B, including $5.6B cash, $2.6B convertible-note proceeds and $0.9B undrawn credit; the amended Ares facility extends to 2031 and lowers the drawn rate by 75 bps.

Infectious disease vaccines and commercial growth

• 2026 core vaccine growth guidance rose to 15%-25%; growth drivers include mNEXSPIKE, mFLUSIVA, EU portfolio expansion and regional partnerships, while 2027 guidance is expected with 4Q earnings.

• mNEXSPIKE accounted for 94% of U.S. retail vaccine shots in its first approval year; mFLUSIVA reached over 25% of U.S. pharmacies and 110,000+ doses administered, with broader contribution expected in its first full contracting cycle in 2027.

• Four respiratory products are approved in Europe; the 2027 estimated market comprises 65M flu, 21M COVID and 4M RSV doses, with access and reimbursement work underway and a competitor contract expiry creating a share opportunity.

• Multi-year vaccine partnerships operate in the U.K., Canada and Australia; a five-year Mexico agreement began with 4M COVID doses shipped in September, while a Taiwan tender supports business through 2027 and beyond.

• Planned pragmatic studies include ~400,000 U.S. adults aged 65+ per season for influenza and 410,000 adults aged 65+ for a flu-COVID combination; infectious disease revenue is expected to grow, but 15%-25% annual growth is not a prudent planning assumption.