Moderna (MRNA) Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference summary

Regulatory and policy environment

• Three mRNA vaccines approved in the last three months, including two COVID-19 vaccines, reflecting strong FDA collaboration.

• States are rapidly decoupling vaccine delivery from HHS recommendations, enabling pharmacists to administer vaccines more freely; most states expected to complete this within weeks.

• Decoupling applies to all vaccines, not just COVID-19, streamlining access across the board.

Commercial strategy and market outlook

• Respiratory portfolio nearing completion, with investments in RSV, COVID-19, and flu largely behind; focus shifting to cash generation.

• High-dose COVID-19 vaccine launch expected to drive market share gains due to higher retailer profits and premium pricing.

• Multi-year supply agreements in the UK, Canada, and Australia will generate nearly $1 billion in recurring annual sales starting next year.

• European market access expected to expand significantly after 2026 as exclusive contracts expire, with differentiated products targeting high-risk populations.

• Targeting over 50% U.S. market share in vaccines by leveraging portfolio bundling and unique products like the flu-COVID combo and Norovirus vaccine.

Financial management and cost control

• Cash costs reduced from $8.9 billion in 2023 to a projected $5.1 billion in 2024, with further reductions planned to $4.7 billion in 2025 and $4.2 billion in 2027.

• Losses expected to decrease annually, reaching break-even by 2028.

• Will adjust R&D investments and seek partnerships if sales targets are not met, with a flexible approach to cost management.