Modivo (MDV) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue for FY2025 was revised downward to PLN 10.9–11 billion, with EBITDA now expected at PLN 1.4 billion, reflecting weaker-than-expected Q4 performance and strategic transformation in e-commerce.

• Q4 revenue fell short by PLN 0.5 billion versus plan, with retail, e-commerce, and wholesale all underperforming; Q4 revenue was PLN 2.6 billion and EBITDA PLN 0.2 billion.

• Gross margin declined to 46.4–47% from 50–50.1%, mainly due to inventory write-downs, increased promotional activity, and higher cost of sales.

• Net profit attributable to owners dropped sharply to PLN 21.8 million from PLN 925.1 million year-over-year.

• Major acquisitions included Szopex Sp. z o.o. and a controlling interest in Worldbox Sp. z o.o., supporting expansion and diversification.

Financial highlights

• Q4 EBITDA estimated at PLN 200 million, with a shortfall of PLN 180–200 million versus expectations; EBITDA for Q4'25 dropped 55% year-over-year.

• Group costs rose 20%, while selling area expanded 28%.

• Inventory per square meter decreased by 24% year-over-year, reflecting improved inventory management despite expansion.

• Net profit: PLN 21.8 million attributable to owners, down from PLN 925.1 million year-over-year.

• Gross profit: PLN 5,171.6 million; gross margin 46.4–47%.

Outlook and guidance

• No official forecast for 2026, but management expects improvement due to increased selling area, better inventory, improved purchasing terms, and reduced discounting.

• Targeting higher share of own and licensed brands, aiming for 50% of product mix.

• Anticipated 25–28% growth in selling area in 2026, with 290,000 sq m to be added.

• Focus remains on high-margin business models, expanding off-price retail, and improving e-commerce profitability.

• Sensitivity analysis shows resilience to adverse macroeconomic scenarios, with mitigating measures available.