Modivo (MDV) Trading update summary

Financial outlook and guidance

• FY2025 revenue is expected at PLN 10.9 billion, revised down from PLN 11.3 billion, with EBITDA guidance at PLN 1.43–1.47 billion, both below previous estimates due to a weaker Q4 2025.

• Q4 2025 revenue was PLN 0.5 billion below plan, mainly from underperformance in retail, e-commerce, and wholesale.

• Gross margin dropped by 3.5–3.7 percentage points, mainly due to inventory write-downs and increased promotional activity.

• Q4 2025 EBITDA is expected at PLN 180–220 million, significantly below the earlier projection of PLN 0.5 billion.

• No official forecast for 2026 is being published, but management expects higher selling area, better purchasing conditions, and improved margins.

Business performance and segment analysis

• Retail like-for-like sales were negative at -1.9%, with e-commerce revenue down 23–24% due to a strategic shift toward own and licensed products.

• HalfPrice sales grew 29% YoY to PLN 729 million, with a strong gross margin of 51.5% and EBITDA margin above 18%.

• Modivo’s revenue fell 24%, with a flat gross margin but negative Q4 EBITDA margin; full-year EBITDA margin was 8%.

• CCC omnichannel revenue was PLN 1.03 billion, with a gross margin of 59% and EBITDA margin over 14%.

• Conversion rates improved, with CCC at 15% and HalfPrice nearing 20%.

Inventory and cost management

• Inventory per square meter decreased by 24%, reflecting improved inventory management.

• Inventory is up 3% year-on-year nominally, but down 3% quarter-on-quarter; 40% of spring/summer collection already delivered.

• Payment terms with suppliers are being extended, and trade finance is increasingly used for purchases.

• Reverse factoring limits are around PLN 2 billion, with 65% utilization.

• Sales and administrative costs are PLN 80 million lower than previously assumed.