MOL Magyar Olaj (MOL) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 profit before tax rose 23% YoY to USD 546 million, driven by higher reported EBITDA and FX gains, with clean CCS EBITDA up 16% to USD 833 million, despite a volatile external environment.

• All volumetric and financial targets were met, but management notes increased uncertainty and risk in achieving full-year guidance.

• All key segments improved performance despite macroeconomic headwinds and economic slowdown.

• Regular and special dividend totaling HUF 275 per share approved, up 10% from 2024.

Financial highlights

• Clean CCS EBITDA reached USD 833 million, up from USD 718 million in Q1 2024; net income was nearly USD 400 million, and profit before tax rose 23% YoY to USD 546 million.

• Upstream EBITDA grew 15% YoY to USD 317 million, downstream Clean CCS EBITDA rose 2% YoY to USD 300 million, and consumer services EBITDA increased 10% YoY to USD 158 million.

• CapEx totaled USD 190 million, with organic CapEx down 49% YoY to USD 160 million due to fewer turnarounds and project scheduling.

• Net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 0.64x, reflecting stable debt and higher EBITDA.

• Simplified free cash flow for Q1 2025 was USD 672 million, up 67% YoY.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance remains on track and is considered achievable, but risks have increased due to macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical uncertainties.

• Group profit before tax guidance for 2025 is ~USD 1.6 billion; Clean CCS EBITDA expected to exceed USD 3.0 billion.

• Production guidance for upstream is 92,000-94,000 boe/d, with current production at 93,000 boe/d.

• Downstream processing guidance is 12 million tons for the year.

• Net debt/EBITDA expected to remain below 1.0x.