MTN Group (MTN) Q3 2024 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered resilient performance in a challenging macroeconomic and regulatory environment, with sustained commercial momentum in core connectivity and strong fintech growth across 17 African and Middle Eastern markets.

• Subscriber base grew 1.6% year-over-year to 288 million, with active data users up 7.4% to 152.8 million and MoMo users up 5.7% to 61.5 million.

• Advanced strategic priorities, including further localization in Ghana and Uganda, exit from Guinea-Bissau, and extension of the MTN Zakhele Futhi empowerment scheme.

• Maintained medium-term guidance and board's expectation of a ZAR 0.0330 ordinary dividend for FY 2024.

Financial highlights

• Group service revenue grew 12.9% in constant currency for the nine months, accelerating to 14.7% in Q3; reported revenue declined 18.5% due to currency effects.

• Data revenue up 21.3%, fintech revenue up 28.9%, and voice revenue up 1%.

• Group EBITDA margin declined 3.2pp to 37.3% due to inflation, currency depreciation, and Sudan conflict.

• MTN Nigeria achieved 33.3% service revenue growth in constant currency, with data up 52.6% and digital services more than doubling.

• MTN Ghana grew top line by 31.9%, with EBITDA margin at 56.2%.

• MTN South Africa service revenue up 3.3%, with EBITDA margin at 36.3%.

Outlook and guidance

• Inflation and currency volatility easing in most key markets, supporting improved profitability and cash flow.

• EBITDA margins expected at the lower end of the 37%-39% range in the near term.

• Focus on sustaining growth in Ghana, Uganda, and improving performance in Côte d'Ivoire, Rwanda, and Zambia.

• Fintech revenue growth targeted in high 20s to low 30s, with continued margin improvement.

• CAPEX guidance unchanged at ZAR 28-33 billion; Nigeria accelerating investment in Q4.

• Board anticipates a minimum ordinary dividend of 330 cents.

• Expense efficiency target of ZAR 7-8 billion between 2024–2026 to mitigate macro volatility.