National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC (KZAP) Q2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• H1 2024 revenue rose 13% to KZT 701.1bn and net profit increased 27% to KZT 283.2bn, while the value-over-volume strategy continued.

• Supply discipline persisted amid sulfuric acid constraints, development delays and a tightening long-term uranium supply-demand outlook.

• 2024 production guidance increased; 2025 guidance was revised below earlier plans because of sulfuric acid uncertainty and construction delays, while sales commitments remained secure.

• CFO Sultan Temirbayev resigned; Marat Tulebayev was nominated as his successor, pending corporate approval.

Financial highlights

• Consolidated revenue was KZT 701.1bn (+13% YoY), net profit KZT 283.2bn (+27%) and adjusted EBITDA KZT 377.0bn (+14%).

• Operating profit declined 10% to KZT 226.7bn as cost of sales rose 38%, mainly from higher uranium purchase costs.

• Mining-entity CAPEX on a 100% basis reached KZT 125.9bn, up 64% YoY.

• FY2023 dividend of KZT 315bn ($673m, or $2.60/GDR) was paid in June 2024; stated yield was 6.5%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 production guidance rose to 22,500–23,500 tU on a 100% basis and 11,600–12,600 tU attributable, from initial ranges of 21,000–22,500 and 10,900–11,900 tU.

• 2025 production is expected at 25,000–26,500 tU on a 100% basis, about 12% above 2024 guidance but below earlier plans; no 2026 volume decision has been made.

• 2024 sales guidance remains 15,500–16,500 tU; revenue guidance is KZT 1,700–1,800bn.

• 2024 mining-entity CAPEX guidance increased to KZT 260–280bn; attributable C1 and all-in sustaining cost guidance is $16.50–$18.00/lb and $27.00–$28.50/lb.

• Uranium MET rises to 9% in 2025; from 2026, rates differentiate by production under each agreement and uranium price.