Neste (NESTE) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 saw strong operational reliability, record renewable product volumes, and an 80% sequential increase in SAF sales, supported by the Rotterdam SAF production startup and expanded capacity.

• The performance improvement program delivered €107 million in EBITDA run-rate improvements by H1 2025, targeting €350 million by end-2026, with >95% of H1 impact from operational cost reductions.

• Cash flow before financing activities improved to €226 million in Q2 2025 from -€225 million in Q1 2025, supported by working capital efficiency.

• Regulatory developments in Europe and the US are providing tailwinds for renewables demand and long-term business outlook.

• Organizational restructuring led to one-off costs of €30 million in H1, excluded from comparable EBITDA.

Financial highlights

• Group comparable EBITDA for Q2 was €341 million, with renewables contributing €174 million, oil products €135 million, and marketing/services €32 million.

• Q2 revenue was €4,511 million, down from €5,017 million in Q1 2025 and €4,642 million year-over-year, as lower prices were offset by higher volumes.

• Free cash flow reached €226 million, supported by strong working capital management.

• Comparable earnings per share was €0.06 in Q2 2025, compared to -€0.04 in Q1 2025.

• H1 net profit was €-76 million (EUR 18 million in H1 2024); EPS was €-0.10 (EUR 0.02 in H1 2024).

Outlook and guidance

• Renewable and Oil Products sales volumes in 2025 are expected to exceed 2024 levels.

• Renewable fuels market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2025; market volatility persists due to geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

• Full-year 2025 capex (excluding M&A) estimated at €1.0–1.2 billion.

• Two major maintenance turnarounds scheduled for Rotterdam (Q4 2025) and Singapore (from mid-December 2025); none in Porvoo.

• Q3 cash flow will depend more on operational profitability due to inventory build ahead of Rotterdam maintenance.