Neste (NESTE) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 was marked by challenging market conditions, operational incidents, and unsustainable financial performance, with significant declines in profitability and margins across all segments.

• Actions initiated to improve efficiency included a Full Potential/performance improvement program targeting EUR 350 million EBITDA run rate improvement by end-2026, with EUR 250 million from operational cost reductions.

• CEO transition: Heikki Malinen appointed as President and CEO in October 2024, with a new leadership team and updated financial targets.

• Investments continued in growth areas, notably SAF and global feedstock sourcing.

• Dividend proposal reduced to EUR 0.20 per share for 2024, reflecting a focus on strengthening the balance sheet.

Financial highlights

• Comparable EBITDA for 2024 was EUR 1,252 million, down from EUR 3,458 million in 2023; reported EBITDA was EUR 1,005 million.

• Full-year revenue was EUR 20,635 million (2023: EUR 22,926 million); net profit for 2024 was EUR -95 million (2023: EUR 1,436 million); EPS EUR -0.12 (2023: EUR 1.87).

• Q4 2024 comparable EBITDA was EUR 168 million; renewable sales margin fell to EUR 242 per ton from EUR 813 per ton year-over-year.

• Cash flow before financing activities for 2024 was negative EUR 313 million (2023: EUR 751 million); net cash from operating activities EUR 1,183 million.

• Leverage ratio increased to 36.1% (2023: 22.7%); interest-bearing net debt rose to EUR 4,192 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Renewable and Oil Products sales volumes are expected to increase in 2025 compared to 2024.

• Market for renewable fuels is expected to remain oversupplied and challenging in 2025, with ongoing regulatory and geopolitical uncertainties.

• CapEx guidance for 2025 is EUR 1.1–1.3 billion, excluding M&A; comparable fixed costs in 2025 expected below 2024 levels, excluding one-off costs.

• Maintenance turnarounds planned for Rotterdam (Q4) and Singapore (late Q4 into 2026); none for Porvoo.