Nova (NVMI) 27th Annual Needham Growth Conference summary

China business and regulatory environment

• China contributed about 36% of revenue in 2023, expected to grow slightly but remain under 40% in 2024.

• Business in China is robust in the first half of 2025, but the second half faces uncertainty due to regulatory impacts.

• The proportion of business from China is expected to decline as investments in advanced nodes increase elsewhere.

• Limited direct impact from recent U.S. export controls, but potential knock-on effects may influence customer spending in the second half.

Product and segment outlook for 2025

• 2025 is expected to be dominated by growth in logic foundry, with DRAM recovery anticipated in the second half.

• Advanced nodes, especially Gate-All-Around (GAA), are seen as the main growth driver, with investments set to increase.

• Cumulative GAA revenue is projected to reach $500 million for 2024–2026, with no change in outlook despite market shifts.

• Strong positioning across all four GAA players, including a growing partnership with Intel starting at the latest FinFET and GAA nodes.

Advanced packaging and AI-related growth

• Entry into packaging began with the Ancosys acquisition in 2022, leading to over 50% growth in packaging business in 2024.

• Advanced packaging growth is driven by AI demand, high bandwidth memory, and CoWoS, with a dominant position in integrated metrology.

• Unique standalone OCD capabilities target specific advanced packaging applications, supporting further market share gains.

• Acquisition of Sentronics adds optical metrology, expanding reach in advanced packaging and supporting AI-related applications.