Nova (NVMI) 27th Annual Needham Growth Conference summary

China business and regulatory environment

• China contributed about 36% of revenue in 2023, expected to grow slightly but remain under 40% in 2024.

• Business in China is robust in the first half of 2025, but the second half faces uncertainty due to regulatory impacts.

• The proportion of business from China is expected to decline as investments in advanced nodes outside China increase.

• Limited direct impact from recent U.S. export controls, but potential knock-on effects may influence customer spending in the second half.

Product and segment outlook for 2025

• 2025 is expected to be dominated by logic/foundry growth, with DRAM recovery anticipated in the second half.

• Advanced nodes, especially Gate-All-Around (GAA), are seen as the main growth drivers.

• Bookings and revenue from GAA are increasing, with a cumulative $500 million target for 2024–2026 reaffirmed.

• Stronger positioning with all four GAA players, including improved engagement with Intel at advanced nodes.

Advanced packaging and AI-related growth

• Entry into packaging began with the Ancosys acquisition in 2022, leading to over 50% growth in 2024 for packaging-related business.

• Significant market share gains in chemical and dimensional metrology for advanced packaging, driven by AI and HBM demand.

• Integrated and standalone metrology tools now dominate advanced packaging, with further expansion planned into material metrology.