Nova (NVMI) 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference Virtual summary

Industry outlook and growth drivers

• 2026 expected to be a growth year, driven by investments in advanced nodes, DRAM, and advanced packaging.

• Semiconductor revenues could reach $1 trillion by 2026, earlier than previous estimates, fueled by AI, data centers, automotive, and industrial demand.

• 2026 is anticipated to be second-half weighted due to project and facility timing, not demand.

• Outperformance over WFE is expected to continue, supported by technology-intensive applications.

Market segment performance

• On track to achieve $500 million cumulative Gate-All-Around revenue by 2026, with strong positioning among all four major players.

• Advanced packaging revenue exposure grew from 0% in 2021–2022 to 20% in 2026, driven by both organic and inorganic initiatives.

• New WMC platform launched in mid-2025 targets advanced packaging applications, including hybrid bonding.

• DRAM is a key growth driver for 2026, with strong presence among top spenders; NAND growth depends on capacity expansions, not upgrades.

Regional and competitive landscape

• China revenue share declined from 39% in 2024 to about 30% in 2026, with dollar growth but lower percentage due to strength in other regions.

• China is expected to be flat or slightly down in 2026, with other markets driving overall growth.

• Market leadership in integrated metrology (>70% share), direct competition with Onto and KLA in other segments, and unique position in advanced inline material metrology.

• Chinese competitors are not yet a major threat but are expected to improve; ongoing R&D investment aims to maintain technology lead.