Nova (NVMI) 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference Virtual summary

Industry outlook and growth drivers

• 2026 is expected to be a growth year, driven by investments in advanced nodes, DRAM memory, and advanced packaging.

• Semiconductor industry revenue estimates have been revised up, with $1 trillion now expected by 2026, fueled by AI, data centers, automotive, and industrial demand.

• Growth in 2026 is anticipated to be second-half weighted due to project and facility timing, not demand.

• Outperformance over WFE is expected to continue, supported by technology-intensive applications and a strong track record.

Segment performance and targets

• Gate-All-Around technology is a major growth driver, with $500 million cumulative revenue targeted by 2026 and on track to be achieved.

• Advanced packaging revenue exposure grew from 0% in 2021–2022 to 20% in 2026, driven by both organic and inorganic initiatives.

• New WMC platform launched in mid-2025 targets advanced packaging applications, including hybrid bonding and copper wafers.

• DRAM is a key growth area, with strong presence among top spenders; NAND growth depends on capacity expansions expected mid-2026.

Regional and competitive landscape

• China accounted for 39% of revenue in 2024, dropping to 30% in 2026 due to stronger growth elsewhere, though dollar revenue increased.

• China is expected to be flat or slightly down in 2026, with percentage share declining as other regions grow.

• Market leadership in integrated metrology (70%+ share), with competition from Onto, KLA, Camtek, and emerging Chinese players.

• R&D investment above 15% of revenue is prioritized to maintain technology leadership over new entrants.