Oscar Health (OSCR) Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026 summary

Business performance and outlook

• 2026 began strongly, with planning for the expiration of enhanced subsidies reflected in current results.

• Membership ended open enrollment at 3.4 million, declining to about 3 million in Q2, tracking as expected.

• Utilization through May remained modestly favorable to expectations, supporting strong performance.

• The final 2025 Wakely report was $130 million favorable to accruals, providing a significant tailwind.

• Full-year guidance was reaffirmed, with healthy tailwinds anticipated for the quarter close.

Market morbidity and risk adjustment

• Early 2026 data suggests market morbidity may be lighter than initially expected, potentially offering upside.

• The 2025 Wakely report showed market morbidity was not accelerating as feared, positively impacting guidance and pricing.

• Enhanced data and third-party insights provided more information on incoming membership risk scores for 2026.

• Risk adjustment remains challenging, but recent data helps refine models and state-level predictions.

• Market contraction for 2026 is estimated at 20%-30%, with current data not indicating the higher end of that range.

Product strategy and membership dynamics

• Conservative planning for subsidy expiration informed product design, especially for Bronze and Gold plans.

• Product strategy enabled retention of existing members and acquisition of new ones, with intentional shifts in metal demographics.

• Membership trends are on track, with market contraction estimates aligning with internal and external data.