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Oscar Health (OSCR) investor relations material
Oscar Health 47th Annual Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.Market performance and membership trends
2025 saw widespread losses due to misestimated market morbidity and the expiration of enhanced subsidies, leading to expected market shrinkage in 2026.
Despite anticipated shrinkage, strong Open Enrollment resulted in 3.4 million members, with an expected Q2 start at 3 million after passive attrition.
Pricing for 2026 was set at the high end of a 20%-30% shrinkage range, but actual shrinkage is trending toward the lower end.
Membership retention is attributed to proactive planning, aggressive distribution, and plan design adjustments over the past two years.
Members were mapped into more affordable plans, reducing attrition compared to peers.
Risk adjustment, profitability, and pricing
New tools provide earlier risk assessment for new members, who tend to be younger and healthier, improving confidence in profitability.
Retaining members generally have better profitability profiles due to more engagement and data over time.
Risk adjustment payments are higher due to a healthier-than-average membership, with 20% of premium revenue allocated for risk transfer.
Pricing for 2026 incorporates lessons from 2025, including market morbidity, integrity measures, and explicit margin expansion.
Risk adjustment remains challenging due to market-wide relative calculations, but new reporting is expected to improve estimates.
Regulatory and integrity measures
CMS introduced integrity measures in 2024 and 2025 to combat fraud, including stricter broker rules and subsidy qualification checks.
Some measures, such as requiring a payment for passive re-enrollment, are currently stayed but expected to be implemented mid-2026 or in 2027.
Pricing for 2026 assumes these integrity initiatives will take effect.
The NBPP rulemaking codifies many of these proposals, supporting a stable market outlook.
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