Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Fourth quarter 2025 net income was $102 million ($1.13/share); excluding special items, net income was $209 million ($2.32/share), on net sales of $2.4 billion, up from $2.1 billion in Q4 2024.

• Full-year 2025 adjusted earnings were $888 million ($9.84/share), up from $815 million ($9.04/share) in 2024, with net sales of $9.0 billion, up from $8.4 billion.

• Special items included Wallula mill restructuring, Greif acquisition and integration costs, and facility closures.

• The Greif acquisition was completed, with significant integration progress and operational improvements at acquired mills.

• Share repurchases totaled 760,000 shares at an average price of $201 per share in Q4.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 net sales were $2.4 billion, up from $2.1 billion in Q4 2024; full-year sales reached $9 billion, up from $8.4 billion.

• Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $486 million (vs. $439 million in Q4 2024); full-year adjusted EBITDA was $1.86 billion (vs. $1.64 billion in 2024).

• Q4 2025 included $1.19/share in special items, mainly for Wallula Mill restructuring and Greif integration.

• Cash from operations in Q4 was $443 million (record), with free cash flow of $124 million after $319 million CapEx.

• Year-end cash and marketable securities totaled $668 million; liquidity was about $1.25 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2026 earnings expected at $2.20/share, excluding special items.

• Full-year 2026 CapEx projected at $840–$870 million; dividend payments estimated at $450 million.

• Annual mill outages in 2026 expected to impact EPS by $1.39, with quarterly breakdowns provided.

• Anticipates running mills at full capacity for 2026, with demand growth and tight inventories.

• Only a small portion of the announced $70/ton price increase is included in Q1 guidance.