Pembina Pipeline (PPL) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Reported Q4 2025 earnings of CAD 489 million and Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 1.075 billion; full-year earnings reached CAD 1.694 billion and Adjusted EBITDA CAD 4.289 billion.

• Achieved record annual pipelines and facilities volumes of 3.7 million boe/d, up 3% year-over-year.

• Advanced major growth projects, including Cedar LNG, RFS IV, Wapiti Expansion, and K3 Cogeneration, with construction progressing and all on or under budget.

• Sanctioned over CAD 625 million (USD 600 million) in new pipeline expansions, including Fox Creek to Namao, Birch to Taylor, and Taylor to Gordondale.

• Secured long-term contracts, including over 200,000 bpd of pipeline capacity, extended Alliance Pipeline contracts, and new agreements with key customers.

Financial highlights

• Q4 Adjusted EBITDA decreased 14% year-over-year, mainly due to lower marketing/new ventures contribution and Alliance Pipeline toll changes.

• Q4 earnings fell 15% year-over-year, impacted by higher depreciation, lower other expenses, and period-specific items.

• Full year adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was CAD 4.289 billion, down 3% year-over-year; full year revenue was CAD 7.778 billion, up CAD 394 million year-over-year.

• Full-year adjusted cash flow from operating activities was CAD 2.854 billion (CAD 4.91/share), down from CAD 3.265 billion (CAD 5.70/share) in 2024.

• Capital expenditures totaled CAD 784 million for 2025, down CAD 171 million year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance set at CAD 4.125–4.425 billion, targeting ~5% CAGR in fee-based Adjusted EBITDA/share from 2023–2026.

• 2026 expected to be peak investment year for Cedar LNG, with leverage (debt/EBITDA) peaking at 3.7–4.0x, then declining post-2026.

• Focus on safe, reliable operations, disciplined capital allocation, and advancing major projects including Greenlight and ethane supply infrastructure.

• Continued emphasis on long-term, fee-based cash flow growth and sustainable dividend policy.

• April 7 webcast planned to provide a detailed long-term outlook and business update.