Petrobras (PETR4) Strategy Update summary

Strategic Vision and Investment Plans

• $111 billion investment planned for 2025–2029, with $77–$77.3 billion for exploration and production, and $16.3 billion (15% of CAPEX) for energy transition projects, a 42% increase over the previous plan.

• Strategic plan aims for diversified, integrated energy leadership, balancing oil and gas with low-carbon businesses, and maintaining relevance in Brazil’s energy supply through 2050.

• Focus on operational emissions neutrality by 2050, with targets for net zero, near zero methane by 2030, and maintaining 2022 emission levels despite production growth.

• Capital structure prioritizes cash generation above investments and obligations, with strict project approval governance and flexibility in debt management.

• Plan expected to generate and sustain 315,000 direct and indirect jobs in Brazil over five years, with tax contributions projected at $253.7 billion.

Exploration, Production, and Operational Targets

• Oil and gas production to ramp up, targeting 2.3 million bbl/day in 2025 and 2.5 million bbl/day between 2027–2029, with a total production target of 3.2 million boed by 2029, 80% from pre-salt fields.

• Ten new production systems to be implemented by 2029, with advanced technologies for efficiency and emissions reduction.

• Portfolio breakeven at $28/bbl Brent, with 22% average IRR for major projects and competitive emissions intensity (15 kg CO₂e/boe).

• Maintains industry-leading organic reserves replacement ratio (148% avg. 2018–23) and invests in asset life extension, revitalization, and decommissioning.

• Peak production expected around 2030, followed by natural decline, with reserve replacement strategies including exploration in new basins and international opportunities.

Refining, Marketing, and Logistics

• $19.6 billion investment in refining, transport, marketing, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, a 17% increase over the previous plan.

• Distillation capacity to rise from 1.81 to 2.11 million bpd, with major expansions at RNEST and increased S10 Diesel and Group II lubricants production.

• BioRefining program to expand low-carbon product offerings, including R5 Diesel, SAF, and HVO, with partnerships for new biorefining projects.

• Logistics investments include 16 new cabotage ships and infrastructure to support market expansion.

• Fertilizer segment to receive $900 million for plant construction and reactivation, aiming for 15% of domestic urea market.