Qualcomm (QCOM) Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference summary

Data center and AI strategy

• Expanding into data center CPUs, leveraging a top-tier CPU team and scalable manufacturing to address AI-driven workloads and inference at scale.

• Recent partnerships, such as with Nvidia for NVLink, position the company as a key player in AI data center infrastructure.

• Plans to provide a detailed product roadmap for data center CPUs by year-end, with financial impact expected beyond current forecasts.

• Edge AI and inference are seen as major growth drivers, with competitive performance per dollar and strong IP.

• Data center expansion is not included in the $22 billion non-handset revenue target by 2029, representing additional optionality.

Handset market dynamics and partnerships

• No evidence of demand pull-forward or direct impact from tariffs in the handset business; monitoring for indirect effects on consumer confidence.

• Multi-year agreement with Xiaomi ensures increasing annual volumes, with Snapdragon remaining central to Xiaomi's flagship devices, especially outside China.

• Xiaomi's domestic chip efforts are seen as a response to local market dynamics and competition with Huawei, not a threat to overall volume.

• Licensing business in China remains stable, with all major customers renewed except Huawei, which is now considered upside to the model.

• Apple modem business expected to phase out by 2027, with market share declining from 70% in 2025 to zero in 2027; licensing renewal expected post-2027.

Growth drivers and diversification

• Automotive business is a key diversification pillar, with digital cockpit, ADAS, and connectivity solutions driving a $45 billion pipeline.

• Launching a new self-driving stack with BMW, available to other OEMs, with commercial rollout in June.

• Automotive revenue is nearing $1 billion per quarter, growing over 50% year-over-year.

• IoT segment targets $8 billion in core, $4 billion in PCs (12% market share), $2 billion in VR/AR, and $4 billion in networking by 2029.

• PC growth driven by ARM transition, improved Windows compatibility, and multi-day battery life; AI PC ecosystem expected to accelerate adoption.