Repsol (REP) CMD 2026 summary

Strategic outlook and financial guidance

• The 2026–2028 roadmap targets a 20% increase in operating cash flow by 2028 compared to 2025, reaching €6.5 billion, with CFFO growth driven by new projects and diversified exposure across Spain, Portugal, US, and other OECD markets.

• Shareholder distributions will total 30–40% of cash flow from operations, with cash dividends growing above 6% annually and a total cash dividend of €3.6 billion in 2026–28; buybacks are expected to raise dividend per share by 6–9% per year.

• Net CapEx for 2026–28 will normalize to €7.5–€10 billion, with €1 billion in planned divestments, 90% allocated to Iberia and the U.S., and 30% to low-carbon businesses.

• Free cash flow is projected at €9 billion in the base case and €7.5 billion in a lower scenario, with ROACE targeted at 12% by 2028.

• The plan is fully financed, maintaining a BBB+/Baa1 credit rating, strong balance sheet, and flexibility to adapt CapEx and distributions to market conditions.

Business segment priorities and growth drivers

• Upstream will focus on free cash flow, with production rising to 580,000–600,000 boe/d by 2028, driven by U.S. growth and new projects in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico, and unconventionals.

• Industrial division targets a 40% increase in cash flow from operations by 2028, led by low-carbon fuels, trading, efficiency gains, and margin improvements, with advanced biofuels capacity reaching 1.5 million tons/year by 2028 and up to 1.8 million tons by 2030.

• Customer business aims to grow digital clients to over 13 million, multi-energy customers by 30%, and >4 million P&G retail customers, targeting €1.5 billion in operating cash flow by 2028 and >33% road transportation market share in Spain & Portugal.

• Low-carbon generation will transition to self-financed growth, adding 1 GW/year to reach ~9 GW by 2028, with Spain largely self-funded, selective U.S. expansion, and a >10% equity IRR hurdle.

• Spain, Portugal, and the U.S. remain core geographies, capturing value from resilient energy demand and leading positions in fuels, power, and renewables.

Decarbonization and sustainability commitments

• On track to achieve net zero absolute emissions (Scope 1+2+3) by 2050, with a 15% carbon intensity reduction by 2025 and a revised 2030 target of 25% versus 2016.

• Methane emissions intensity in E&P reduced to <0.2%, with routine flaring eliminated and >1.5 MtCO₂e annual emissions reduction plan in place.

• Industrial segment to reduce Scope 1 & 2 CO₂ by 0.6 Mtpa in 2026–28, expand renewable fuels capacity to 1.6–1.8 Mt by 2030, and grow renewable H₂ capacity to 0.6–0.8 GWeq.

• LCG segment maintains disciplined capital allocation and asset rotation to optimize returns.

• Maintains flexibility to pace low-carbon investments according to market evolution and regulatory developments.