Repsol (REP) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted income for Q3 2024 was €558M, down 49% year-over-year, reflecting weaker refining margins and Libya production interruptions.

• Net income for Q3 2024 was €166M, a sharp decline from €1,365M in Q3 2023.

• Cash flow from operations reached €1.5B in Q3 2024, up 16% year-over-year and 63% sequentially.

• Net debt increased to €5.5B at Q3 2024 end, up €0.9B from June and from €2.1B at December 2023, mainly due to investments, dividends, share buybacks, and the Spanish energy levy.

• Shareholder remuneration for 2024 will be within 30%-35% of cash flow from operations, with 60M shares to be redeemed and a 3% increase in cash dividends planned for 2025.

Financial highlights

• EBITDA for Q3 2024 was €1,421M, down 50.8% year-over-year; revenue was €14,274M, down from €16,263M in Q3 2023.

• Adjusted income for Q3 2024 was €558M, compared to €1,098M in Q3 2023 and €859M in Q2 2024.

• Net CapEx for 2024 is expected to be €5.5B, slightly above previous guidance due to M&A timing.

• Net debt at quarter-end was €5.5B, up from €2.1B at year-end 2023.

• Free cash flow for Q3 2024 was €151M, €253M higher year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 average production is expected at the lower end of 570,000-600,000 boe/d due to Libya interruptions.

• Full-year refining margin indicator expected around $7/bbl, with seasonal recovery in diesel margins.

• 2024 cash flow from operations guidance revised down to €6B, with net CapEx of ~€5.5B.

• Net CapEx for 2024-2027 guided at €16-19B, likely at the lower end.

• No additional share buybacks expected before year-end due to weaker macro environment.