Ørsted (ORSTED) Pre-Close Call Presentation summary

Financial performance and outlook

• Group EBITDA guidance for 2025 is DKK 24-27 bn, reflecting lower-than-expected wind speeds year-to-date and an EBITDA impact of DKK 1.2 bn.

• Offshore generation capacity is expected to increase from 5.2 GW in Q3 2024 to 5.4 GW in Q2 2025, with near full contribution from Gode Wind 3 and a divestment in West of Duddon Sands.

• Onshore installed capacity rises to 6.2 GW in Q3 2025, up from 5.7 GW, driven by project completions and farm-downs.

• Structurally higher earnings are expected in Q1 and Q4 due to seasonality, with wind speeds below norm in Q3 2025 for both offshore and onshore portfolios.

• Impairment risks for Sunrise Wind and Revolution Wind projects could increase to DKK 2.5-3.0 bn due to US trade policy developments.

Strategic targets and investment plans

• Group EBITDA excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees is targeted at DKK 24-27 bn for 2025.

• Gross investments for 2025 are projected at DKK 50-54 bn, with divestment proceeds over DKK 32 bn.

• Average return on capital employed (ROCE) is targeted above 13% for 2028-2030.

• Fully loaded unlevered lifecycle spread to WACC at bid/FID is targeted at 150-300 bps.

• Commitment to a solid investment-grade credit rating and a target to reinstate dividend for the 2026 financial year.

Operational highlights and risks

• Q3 2025 wind speeds were below norm for both offshore and onshore assets, impacting earnings.

• Compensation received for grid delay related to Borkum Riffgrund 3 in 2025.

• Q3 2024 included DKK 5.1 bn in cancellation fees from changes in provision for Ocean Wind 1.

• Ongoing assessment of tariff impacts from US trade policy changes, with potential impairment risks for key projects.

• Seasonality continues to drive higher earnings in Q1 and Q4 compared to Q2 and Q3.