Safaricom (SCOM) Pre-close call summary

Executive summary

• Stable macroeconomic and regulatory environments in Kenya support commercial momentum and strategic execution.

• Ethiopia shows improving regulatory clarity and currency stability, with progress on key cost and pricing interventions.

• FY 2027 breakeven guidance for Ethiopia is maintained, with foundational changes underway.

• No material surprises expected for FY 2026; CapEx and growth engines are tracking within guidance.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Kenya continues to deliver dependable earnings, with strong customer momentum and improved voice performance in H2.

• Fixed enterprise growth in Kenya is recovering, and growth engines remain robust.

• Ethiopia's commercial momentum is positive, but subscription growth is tracking at the lower end of guidance.

• Handset sales in Kenya remain steady, with increased third-party involvement; Ethiopia's device financing is constrained.

Profitability and margins

• OpEx intensity in Kenya remains stable, with predictable direct costs and improved currency impact.

• M-PESA commission as a percentage of revenue is expected to remain stable, with minor directional declines due to business mix.

• Ethiopia's price increases and regulatory interventions are expected to improve top and bottom line performance in the next fiscal year.