Sandisk (SNDK) Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 summary

Market outlook and demand trends

• Strong conviction that the NAND market will be undersupplied through at least 2026, with significant demand growth driven by AI and data center expansion.

• Data center exabyte demand forecasts have increased from mid-20s to mid/high-60s growth rates within a year, reflecting rapid acceleration.

• NAND and hard drives are seen as complementary in data centers, with NAND expected to outpace hard drive growth due to AI integration.

• The buyer profile in the NAND market is shifting from commodity resellers to large-scale, architecture-driven consumers seeking long-term supply certainty.

• Attractive demand is prioritized, focusing on customers who value the technology's accumulated IP and CapEx investment.

Business model transformation and customer agreements

• Efforts are underway to move from quarterly, auction-based sales to multi-year agreements with greater demand visibility and financial stability.

• New agreements emphasize mutual commitment, financial protection in both good and bad times, and selection of customers with above-market growth.

• Negotiations include mechanisms like prepayments and enforceable commitments, aiming to align incentives and ensure contract completion.

• The goal is not to justify more CapEx, but to align long-term production with committed consumption, reducing volatility.

• Industry consolidation is not seen as necessary for strong economics; scale can be achieved through joint ventures and business model innovation.

Technology and innovation

• The BiCS8 node and new enterprise SSD controller are highlighted as key technology advances, enabling higher density and performance.

• High-Bandwidth Flash is being developed to address AI inference needs, focusing on bandwidth as well as density, with industry collaboration on standards.

• Early analysis of new AI-related architectures, such as Key-Value Cache, suggests substantial incremental NAND demand by 2027 and beyond.

• Ongoing R&D and CapEx investments are positioned to support both existing and emerging markets, leveraging 25 years of accumulated expertise.

• The company is optimistic about continued innovation and the central role of NAND in future technology architectures.