SBA Communications (SBAC) Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 summary

Industry growth drivers and outlook

• Revenue growth is driven by co-location for densification, amendments, and ongoing network upgrades, with traffic growing at double-digit rates annually.

• CapEx as a percentage of revenue is currently at a trough, expected to rise with the next technology cycle, notably 6G, anticipated around 2029-2030.

• Fixed wireless access now accounts for 15 million subscribers and over half of network capacity, driving further co-location demand.

• Long-term agreements with major carriers provide predictable growth, with Verizon set to be the most active customer in 2026.

• Industry barriers to entry remain high due to infrastructure complexity, zoning laws, and the cost of replication.

Financial performance and capital allocation

• Lease-up revenue was $78 million in 2023, with 2024 guidance at $35 million, reflecting a trough but ongoing growth.

• Capital allocation in 2024 included $250 million for M&A, $200 million for buybacks, and debt reduction, with future focus likely on buybacks due to high private market valuations.

• EBITDA is approximately $1.9 billion, with $650 million in excess cash for disciplined allocation.

• Recent acquisitions include a $1 billion deal with Millicom at 11x EBITDA.

• No plans to enter new emerging markets or pursue large U.S. acquisitions given current valuations.

Market-specific insights

• Brazil represents 15% of site leasing revenue; churn from Oi is peaking, with a healthier market expected as 5G deployment increases and inflation is controlled.

• African operations in South Africa and Tanzania deliver the highest returns on invested capital, with no plans for further expansion.

• Central America is a focus for new builds, with healthy operators and strong growth prospects.

• Portfolio rationalization has led to exits from less scalable markets such as the Philippines, Colombia, Argentina, and Canada.