Shell (SHEL) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered $54.7 billion in cash flow from operations and $23.7 billion in adjusted earnings for 2024, with strong free cash flow and robust shareholder distributions despite a softer Q4 and lower price environment.

• Achieved $3.1 billion in structural cost reductions since 2022, ahead of schedule and above target, supporting operational efficiency and improved margins.

• Distributed over $22.5 billion to shareholders in 2024, mainly via buybacks, with a 4% dividend increase and a new $3.5 billion buyback program.

• Advanced major projects including Whale, Mero-3, and Bonga North, and made key investment decisions in Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and China.

• Progressed decarbonization efforts, abating over 1 million tons of CO2 and keeping Scope 1 and 2 emissions flat year-over-year.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 adjusted earnings were $3.7 billion, with full-year adjusted earnings of $23.7 billion and CFFO of $54.7 billion.

• Free cash flow for 2024 was $39.5 billion, up year-over-year; cash capex was $21.1 billion, below guidance.

• Net debt ended 2024 at $38.8 billion, $4.7 billion lower year-over-year, despite a Q4 increase from lease liability recognition.

• Distributed $22.6 billion to shareholders, representing 41% of CFFO.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached $65.8 billion for the year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 cash capex expected to be lower than 2024’s $21.1 billion, with further guidance at the March Capital Markets Day.

• Announced a new $3.5 billion share buyback to be completed by Q1 2025 results.

• Dividend increased by 4%, maintaining a progressive dividend policy.

• Targeting >10% FCF/share growth through 2025 and $2-3 billion structural cost reductions by end-2025.

• Q1 2025 production outlook: Integrated Gas 930-990 kboe/d, LNG liquefaction 6.6-7.2 MT, Upstream 1,750-1,950 kboe/d.