Shell (SHEL) Trading update summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 outlook reflects ongoing Middle East conflict, impacting LNG and upstream volumes.

• Adjusted earnings in Marketing and Renewables & Energy Solutions expected to be significantly higher than Q1 2025.

• Trading & Optimisation performance anticipated to improve in Chemicals, Products, and Renewables segments.

Financial highlights

• Integrated Gas production expected at 880–920 kboe/d, with LNG liquefaction volumes of 7.6–8.0 MT.

• Upstream production forecasted at 1,760–1,860 kboe/d, reflecting portfolio changes.

• Marketing sales volumes projected at 2,550–2,650 kb/d; adjusted earnings to rise significantly year-over-year.

• Chemicals indicative refining margin rises to $17/bbl, chemicals margin stable at $139/tonne.

• Renewables & Energy Solutions adjusted earnings expected between $0.2–0.7 billion.

• Corporate adjusted earnings projected at $(1.0)–$(0.8) billion.

• Cash flow from operations tax paid expected at $2.0–2.8 billion; working capital movement negative due to commodity price volatility.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2026 results to be finalized and published May 7, 2026; guidance subject to geopolitical and market risks.

• Quarterly Databook provides further guidance on refining and chemicals margins and sensitivities.

• Consensus estimates to be published April 29, 2026.