Shell (SHEL) Trading update summary

Production and integrated gas

• Integrated Gas production outlook 740–780 kboe/d vs 631 kboe/d in Q2; LNG liquefaction 7.2–7.6 MT vs 7.7 MT. The outlook includes ARC Resources, acquired 2 September 2026.

• Integrated Gas underlying opex $1.3–1.5B, pre-tax depreciation $1.1–1.5B and tax charge $0.6–0.9B; Trading & Optimisation expected in line with Q2.

• Upstream production outlook 1,735–1,835 kboe/d vs 1,824 kboe/d in Q2; underlying opex $2.1–2.5B, pre-tax depreciation $2.2–2.8B and tax charge $2.5–3.3B.

• Upstream exploration well write-offs expected at ~$0.3B in Q3.

Marketing and chemicals

• Marketing sales volume outlook 2,550–2,650 kb/d vs 2,570 kb/d in Q2; underlying opex $2.3–2.7B, pre-tax depreciation $0.5–0.7B and tax charge $0.2–0.5B.

• Marketing adjusted earnings expected below Q2; Chemicals & Products Trading & Optimisation expected in line with Q2.

• Indicative refining margin $42/bbl vs $24/bbl in Q2; indicative chemicals margin $208/tonne vs $270/tonne. Low Rhine water levels are impacting Rheinland refinery utilisation.

• Refinery utilisation outlook 93%–97% vs 102% in Q2; chemicals utilisation 81%–85% vs 83%. Chemicals & Products underlying opex $1.7–2.1B, pre-tax depreciation $1.1–1.3B and tax charge $1.0–1.5B.

Earnings and cash flow

• Renewables and Energy Solutions adjusted earnings outlook $0.0–0.4B; Corporate adjusted earnings outlook $(0.8)–$(0.6)B.

• CFFO excluding working capital expected to include ~$2.5B of outflow from timing of German BEHG emissions-certificate payments; tax paid outlook $3.1–3.9B.

• Working capital outlook $(4)–$1B; financial derivative instrument movements $0–5B and other cash flow $(4)–$1B.

• CFFO includes a $0.8B JV dividend inflow offset by a $0.8B working-capital outflow, with zero net CFFO impact; biogas impairments in Marketing expected to be largely offset by an Integrated Gas impairment reversal, both identified items.

• Net debt expected to reflect ARC acquisition cash consideration and assumed debt, plus higher variable components of long-term shipping leases in the current macro environment.