SEB (SEB) Pre-close call summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2026 pre-close call focused on rates, key P&L lines, risk exposure, and capital, with Q&A on disclosed and public data.

• Average three-month STIBOR slightly down, while six-month Euribor up 23 bps, impacting Baltic operations mainly on deposits.

• SEK weakened versus euro, providing a tailwind for income but a headwind for costs; FX movements affect balance sheet and CET1 ratio.

• Q3 affected by seasonality due to summer, with generally lower activity levels.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Lending and deposit growth observed in Sweden and the Baltics at the system level.

• Net interest income (NII) impacted by normalized market levels and increased funding, with a SEK 50 million negative effect quarter-on-quarter.

• Equity markets up 3%-5% on average versus Q2, supporting fee and commission income.

• Q3 is seasonally weakest for payment and card fees due to limited corporate travel.

• Net financial income expected at the lower end of the SEK 2 billion ±400 million range due to volatility and seasonality.

• Net other income likely near the lower end of SEK 0–100 million due to one-offs.

Profitability and margins

• Expense run rate tracking below full-year target, with higher costs expected in H2 due to investment ramp-up.

• Share price increase in Q3 raises costs for long-term incentive schemes.

• Underlying asset quality remains robust; expected credit losses stable.

• Imposed levies for 2026 expected at SEK 3.5 billion; tax rate proxy at 21%.