Snam (SRG) Q4 2025 & strategic plan earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong FY2025 results, surpassing guidance with revenue of €3.89B (+8.9% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of €2.97B (+7.8%), and adjusted net profit of €1.42B (+10.3%), while advancing major infrastructure projects such as the Adriatic Line, FSRU Ravenna, and OLT acquisition.

• Launched a 2026–2030 strategic plan focused on energy integration, resilience, and growth, leveraging Italy’s infrastructure and emphasizing gas’s role in system adequacy and flexibility.

• Announced a €14 billion investment program, a 10% increase over the previous plan, targeting regulated infrastructure, LNG, CCS, hydrogen, and digital innovation.

• Asset rotation program of €3 billion identified to optimize the portfolio, enhance industrial positioning, and unlock additional value.

• Confirmed commitment to decarbonization, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2040 and net zero by 2050, with significant progress on Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions.

Financial highlights

• FY2025 revenues rose 8.9% year-over-year to €3.89B; adjusted EBITDA up 7.8% to €2.97B; adjusted net income up 10.3% to €1.42B, outperforming guidance.

• Tariff RAB increased 8.3% to €26.2B in 2025, with 2026 guidance at €28.8B (+10%).

• Net debt at end-2025 was €17.5B, below guidance, with cost of debt stable at 2.6%.

• Cash flow from operations in 2025 was €2.69B, with strong working capital management and high cash conversion (>80%).

• Investments totaled €2.76B in 2025, with 34% EU taxonomy and 54% SDG alignment.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance: CapEx/investments ~€2.8B, tariff RAB €28.8B, adjusted EBITDA ~€3.1B, adjusted net income above €1.45B, net debt ~€19B, DPS ~€0.31.

• 2026–2030 plan: €13.7–14B net investment, 5.7% RAB CAGR, 5.4% EBITDA CAGR, 4.5% net profit CAGR, RAB to reach ~€34.5B by 2030.

• Asset rotation program expected to add €1.8B to 2030 RAB and 6% EBITDA accretion by 2030.

• Dividend per share to grow 4% annually through 2030, with a maximum 80% payout cap and DPS target of €0.375 by 2030.