Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference summary

Portfolio and growth outlook

• Transitioned from a single-product focus to a diversified portfolio with four growth products, including ONAPGO, ZURZUVAE, Qelbree, and GOCOVRI, all showing strong performance and growth potential.

• Recent supply constraints for ONAPGO have been resolved, allowing for the reinitiation of new patient starts and a return to normal operations.

• Qelbree continues to grow in both adult and pediatric segments, maintaining a stable mix and showing significant potential in the underpenetrated non-stimulant ADHD market.

• ZURZUVAE is being relaunched with increased investment and educational initiatives, aiming to address low awareness in postpartum depression.

• Pipeline assets SPN-817 and SPN-820 are in phase II-B, with data expected in 2027.

ONAPGO launch and supply chain

• ONAPGO faced supply bottlenecks due to shared manufacturing lines, leading to a temporary halt in new patient initiations; production has now stabilized.

• Backlog of patient start forms remains high, with ongoing efforts to process and initiate patients; conversion rates from forms to actual patients are estimated at 75-85%.

• Annual revenue guidance for ONAPGO is set at $45–$70 million, with potential for upside depending on supply, demand, and fulfillment rates.

• A second supplier is expected to come online in 2027, pending FDA review and inspection, to further secure supply.

• Net pricing is expected to stabilize at 20–30% of the $100,000–$105,000 WAC per patient, with strong insurance coverage to date.

Product performance and market dynamics

• Qelbree achieved 935,000 prescriptions last year, with strong growth in both adult and pediatric ADHD segments; the non-stimulant market remains largely untapped.

• ZURZUVAE has treated 20,000 women in two years, with significant room for growth given the 500,000 annual cases of postpartum depression; DTC campaigns and physician education are being prioritized.

• GOCOVRI continues to grow at double-digit rates despite being nine years old.

• Peak sales guidance for ONAPGO may be revised upward, potentially closer to $300 million, pending further data post-supply disruption.