Taylor Wimpey (TW) Q3 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered resilient performance amid challenging UK housing market conditions, with a focus on efficiency, planning progress, and new outlet openings despite affordability pressures and cautious sentiment, especially for first-time buyers.

• Incentives are increasingly important to drive sales, with underlying pricing broadly flat but more challenged in southern regions.

• Net private sales rate for the second half to date is 0.63 (0.71 last year), with a cancellation rate steady at 17%.

• Order book (excluding joint ventures) as of 9 November stands at 7,253 homes valued at approximately £2.1bn, both lower than last year.

• Outlet openings are on track, with 51 opened year-to-date versus 34 last year.

Financial highlights

• Net private sales rate for the year to date is 0.72 (0.73 last year), with a cancellation rate of 16% (15% last year).

• Excluding bulk deals, net private sales rate is 0.68, unchanged from last year.

• Full year blended UK average selling price expected to approach £340,000, with risk to the downside if more affordable homes are included.

• Incentive levels have ticked up, now at the higher end of the 5%-6% range.

• Underlying pricing remains broadly flat; low single digit build cost inflation expected in 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Expectation to deliver full year 2025 UK completions and group operating profit in line with guidance, with completions (excluding joint ventures) guided at 10,400 to 10,800 homes and group operating profit around £424 million.

• Guidance for 2026 will be confirmed after the order book is updated in January and prelims in March.

• Margin uplift from land bank evolution expected to be minimal in 2026, more meaningful from 2027 onwards.

• Short-term uncertainty may result in UK volume growth in 2026 below the straight-line run rate to the medium-term 14,000 unit target.

• On track to close out the year operating from 210-215 outlets.