Taylor Wimpey (TW) Trading update summary

Trading and outlook

• 2026 UK completions excluding joint ventures are expected at ~10,500; adjusted operating profit is expected near the bottom of the £262m-£299m consensus range, which includes joint ventures and excludes exceptional items.

• Net private sales rate from 29 June to 8 November was 0.60 per outlet per week versus 0.63 in 2025; excluding bulk deals, 0.54 versus 0.61. Cancellation rate was 17% in both periods.

• Order book was 6,839 homes valued at ~£1,984m as of 8 November, versus 7,253 homes and ~£2,116m in 2025; underlying pricing was ~2.5% below last year and incentives remained at 6%-6.5%.

• Pricing pressure was most acute in London, less severe across the wider Southeast and gradually improving farther north; higher mortgage rates and living costs weighed on affordability and near-term demand.

• Customer interest and site engagement remained robust, but borrowing costs and affordability concerns lengthened the inquiry-to-reservation period and increased buyer hesitation.

Cost and capital discipline

• Build cost inflation is expected at 3%-4% for 2026; labor cost pressure has been contained through the year.

• Cost actions include procurement and commercial controls, standardization, product substitutions, site-design improvements and tighter specifications, with savings tracked through orders and costs to the bottom line.

• Supplier negotiations, competitive tendering, e-auctions and cost validation aim to offset supply-chain inflation; mitigation depends on energy, fuel and commodity markets.

• Tight work-in-progress control is aligned with sales; outlet growth is planned without net land investment, alongside a smaller short-term landbank.

• Cladding spend is expected to be ~£70m in 2026; the provision reflects the current best estimate, with cost certainty improving as building assessments progress.

Land and outlet progress

• Outlets increased to 225 from 206 a year earlier; 2027 openings are viewed positively but expected to be weighted toward H2 due to planning delays. More outlets are expected to open in 2026 than in 2025.

• Strategic pipeline conversions reached ~5,000 plots year to date versus ~2,000 at the comparable point last year; ~5,000 plots were approved year to date, focusing on smaller sites.

• Short-term landbank was ~73,000 plots at end-October versus ~75,000 at 28 June; landbank changes focus on capital efficiency.

• Lower sales rates have delayed the landbank margin benefit: limited impact in 2026, a more muted contribution in 2027, and the majority expected in 2028-29.

• Expected 2026 shareholder returns total ~£240m; year-end net cash is expected at ~£250m, subject to land purchase timing. By 6 November, ~39m shares had been bought for ~£31.5m of the £41.9m buyback programme.