TC Energy (TRP) Investor Day 2024 summary

Strategic priorities, business transformation, and outlook

• Transitioned to a focused natural gas and power company, completing the spinoff of liquids pipelines and integrating gas businesses for efficiency and risk reduction.

• Emphasizes disciplined capital allocation, safety, operational excellence, and project execution, with a $6–$7 billion annual capital program.

• Achieved major milestones including Coastal GasLink mechanical completion, commercial in-service, and a $199 million one-time payment.

• North American natural gas demand is forecasted to rise by nearly 40 Bcf/d by 2035, with LNG, electrification, and data centers as key growth drivers.

• Unique North American footprint connects critical growth markets in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, with nuclear power providing non-emitting diversification.

Growth projects, capital allocation, and financial guidance

• $32 billion secured/sanctioned capital project backlog, with a focus on brownfield, in-corridor expansions, and high-return projects.

• Four new growth projects totaling $1.5 billion announced, including Columbia Gulf System and Southeast Virginia Energy Storage.

• Annual net capital spending capped at $6–$7 billion, with $2–$2.5 billion for maintenance and modernization, and $1 billion for Bruce Power.

• No new equity issuance planned; $31 billion funding over three years to be covered by $24 billion cash flow and $7 billion from capital markets.

• 2025 comparable EBITDA guidance is $10.7–$10.9 billion, targeting 5–7% annual growth through 2027 and $11.7–$11.9 billion by 2027.

Business unit highlights and operational execution

• Canadian gas business benefits from a five-year NGTL settlement, targeting $3.3–$3.8 billion EBITDA by 2027 and supporting new projects.

• U.S. gas business targets brownfield projects with 5–7x build multiples and low double-digit IRRs, driving a 4% CAGR through 2027.

• Mexico's Southeast Gateway project to be in service mid-2025, boosting EBITDA to $1.7–$1.8 billion in 2026–2027, with long-term USD contracts.

• Bruce Power's MCR program and Project 2030 will increase capacity from 6.5 GW to over 7 GW by 2032, nearly doubling equity income by the early 2030s.

• Data center, coal-to-gas conversion, and storage expansion projects are key drivers of future growth.