TC Energy (TRP) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved best safety performance in five or six years, enabling multiple new delivery and flow records and robust operational reliability across North America.

• Fourth quarter comparable EBITDA rose 13–14% year-over-year, capping a year of strong operational and financial performance.

• Placed CAD 8.3 billion of projects into service in 2025, 15% under budget, and advanced an additional $5 billion of projects at various stages.

• Replaced nearly all EBITDA from the spun-off liquids business with high-quality natural gas and power projects within 18 months.

• S&P affirmed BBB+ rating and revised outlook to stable, with a year-end debt-to-EBITDA of 4.8x, on track for a long-term target of 4.75x.

Financial highlights

• Q4 comparable EBITDA reached nearly CAD 3 billion (or $3.0–$3.1 billion), up 13–14% year-over-year, with full-year growth of 9%.

• Canada Gas EBITDA rose by CAD 110 million, U.S. EBITDA by CAD 188 million, and Mexico EBITDA by CAD 163 million (70% increase year-over-year) due to project completions and settlements.

• Power and Energy Solutions segment saw lower equity income from Bruce Power due to planned outages, partially offset by higher contract prices.

• Full-year comparable EBITDA from continuing operations was $10.95–$11.0 billion, up from $10.05 billion in 2024.

• Comparable funds generated from operations for 2025 were $8.0 billion, up from $7.9 billion in 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• Reaffirmed 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance of $11.6–$12.0 billion and 2028 outlook of $12.6–$13.1 billion.

• Expects to fully allocate or surpass the $6 billion annual net capital expenditure target through 2030, with potential to exceed this in 2029 and beyond.

• Dividend per share expected to increase from $3.40 in 2025 to $3.51 in 2026, with a current yield of 4.2%.

• Anticipates North American natural gas demand to rise by 45 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and data center growth.