TC Energy (TRP) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strongest safety performance in five years, with 13% year-over-year Q4 2025 comparable EBITDA growth and robust operational and financial results.

• Placed CAD 8.3 billion ($8.3 billion) of projects into service in 2025, over 15% under budget, and advanced an additional $5 billion of projects.

• Replaced nearly all EBITDA from the spun-off liquids business with high-quality natural gas and power projects within 18 months.

• Maintained a disciplined capital allocation strategy, focusing on brownfield and corridor expansions, and raised the dividend for the 26th consecutive year with a 3.2% increase for 2026.

• S&P affirmed BBB+ rating and revised outlook to stable, with year-end debt-to-EBITDA of 4.8x, on track for a long-term target of 4.75x.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 comparable EBITDA rose 13% year-over-year to nearly CAD 3 billion ($3.0 billion), with full-year comparable EBITDA up 9% to $11.0 billion.

• Canada Gas EBITDA rose by CAD 110 million, U.S. EBITDA by CAD 188 million, and Mexico EBITDA by CAD 163 million (70% increase year-over-year) due to project completions and settlements.

• U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines set a new delivery record, with daily average flows up 9.5% and comparable EBITDA up 16% year-over-year.

• Power and Energy Solutions saw a 36% decline in comparable EBITDA, primarily due to Bruce Power outages, with Bruce Power Q4 availability at 85.7–89.5%.

• Board declared a Q1 2026 dividend of CAD 0.8775 per share, up 3.2% year-over-year, with annualized dividend per share at $3.51 for 2026.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 comparable EBITDA projected at CAD 11.6–11.9 billion, with a 2028 outlook of CAD 12.6–13.1 billion.

• Annual net capital expenditures targeted at $5.5–$6.0 billion through 2030, with potential to exceed $6 billion in 2029 and beyond.

• Dividend per share expected to increase from $3.40 in 2025 to $3.51 in 2026, with a current yield of 4.2%.

• Anticipates North American natural gas demand to rise by 40–45 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and data center growth.