Terna (TRN) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 saw revenue rise 5.1% to €901.8 million, EBITDA up 3.8% to €652.0 million, and net profit reach €275.3 million, with double-digit capex growth supporting grid security, energy transition, and major projects like the Tyrrhenian Link.

• Net debt decreased to €11,126.6 million from year-end 2024, reflecting strong cash flow management.

• S&P upgraded the long-term rating to A- in April 2025, Moody’s confirmed Baa2, and €750 million green bond plus €1.8 billion ESG-linked facility were issued.

• 12 new grid development projects were authorized, and the first submarine cable for the Tyrrhenian Link was completed.

• Share price closed Q1 at €8.364, up 9.8% from December 2024, outperforming sector benchmarks.

Financial highlights

• Revenues rose 5.1% year-over-year to €901.8 million; EBITDA up 3.8% to €652.0 million; group net profit reached €275.3 million (+2.6%).

• Capex totaled €562.1 million, up 16.4% year-over-year, with €527 million in regulated activities.

• Net debt at March 2025 was €11,126.6 million, slightly below 2024 year-end.

• Operating cash flow reached €610.2 million, covering increased capex.

• Free cash flow to equity improved to €48 million from -€84 million in Q1 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: revenue of €4.03 billion, EBITDA of €2.70 billion, net profit of €1.08 billion, and capex of €3.4 billion.

• All targets from the March 2025 industrial plan update confirmed, with continued focus on grid expansion, resilience, and renewables integration.

• Expectation to book over €50 million in out-of-base incentives (OBIs) for 2025; €550 million cumulative OBIs expected for 2025-2028.

• No change expected in regulatory WACC for 2026, remaining at 5.5%.

• Macroeconomic and regulatory risks remain, including global growth, trade tensions, and ARERA mechanisms.