Terna (TRN) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenues for the first nine months of 2024 reached €2,647.4 million, up 17.8% year-over-year, with EBITDA at €1,892.2 million (+21.6%) and net profit at €812.6 million (+26.6%).

• Capex accelerated to €1,699.2 million (+18.5% year-over-year), supporting major grid projects, energy transition, and digitalization.

• Net debt decreased to €10,017.7 million from €10,494.3 million at year-end 2023, reflecting strong cash flow and prudent financial management.

• Interim dividend for 2024 set at €0.1192 per share, up 4% from 2023, in line with the 2024-2028 Industrial Plan.

• Signed a term sheet to acquire a portion of the Rome high-voltage grid from Acea, expected to be EPS accretive from year one and to reduce operational complexity.

Financial highlights

• Revenues: €2,647.4 million (+17.8% year-over-year); EBITDA: €1,892.2 million (+21.6%); EBIT: €1,256.8 million (+28.3%).

• Net profit: €812.6 million (+26.6% year-over-year); Capex: €1,699.2 million (+18.5%).

• Net debt: €10,017.7 million (down €476.6 million from 31 Dec 2023).

• Share price closed at €8.088 on 30 September 2024, up 7.1% YTD.

• Free cash flow to equity was €116 million after €1,699.2 million capex.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 guidance improved: revenues expected at €3.61 billion, EBITDA at €2.50 billion, EPS at €0.52.

• Capex target for 2024 confirmed at approximately €2.6 billion.

• Focus remains on delivering the 2024-2028 Industrial Plan, integrating renewables, and grid digitalization.

• Regulatory changes (ARERA) expected by year-end; output-based incentives to end in 2024.

• Dividend policy ensures at least 4% annual growth, with 2024 payout based on the higher of 4% growth or 75% payout ratio.