The GEO Group (GEO) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2025 revenue was $636.2 million, up 4.8% year-over-year, with net income of $29.1 million, reversing a $32.5 million loss in Q2 2024; YTD net income was $48.7 million.

• Major asset sale: Lawton Correctional Facility sold for $312 million, proceeds used to pay down $300 million in debt and fund a $300 million share repurchase program expiring June 2028.

• New ICE contracts and facility activations contributed to revenue growth, with four ICE facilities ramping up and expected to generate over $240 million in annualized revenue.

• Share repurchase program of up to $300 million authorized, targeting $100 million per year through June 2028.

• Ongoing contract discussions for 5,900 idle beds with ICE and U.S. Marshals Service, representing $310 million in potential annualized revenue.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $118.6 million, nearly flat year-over-year; adjusted net income was $31 million ($0.22/diluted share).

• Q2 2025 operating income was $72 million, down from $80.1 million in Q2 2024; Q2 2025 EPS was $0.21, compared to a loss of $0.25 per share in Q2 2024.

• Owned and leased secure facility revenues rose 12% year-over-year, driven by new ICE contracts and census growth.

• Net interest expense decreased by $8.7 million year-over-year due to debt reduction.

• Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 were $35.2 million; first six months totaled $67.6 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2025 GAAP net income guidance raised to $1.99–$2.09 per diluted share, including a $228 million gain on the Lawton sale.

• Adjusted net income guidance for 2025 is $0.84–$0.94 per diluted share on $2.56 billion revenue; adjusted EBITDA guidance is $465–$490 million.

• Q3 2025 adjusted net income expected at $0.20–$0.23 per share; Q4 at $0.28–$0.35 per share.

• 2025 capital expenditures projected at $200–$210 million, including $60 million for a facility purchase.

• 2025 annual effective tax rate projected at 28–30%, exclusive of discrete items.