TransAlta (TA) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong Q2 2025 results with Adjusted EBITDA of $349 million and Free Cash Flow of $177 million ($0.60/share), driven by Alberta portfolio hedging, asset optimization, and environmental offsets from hydro and wind assets.

• Achieved fleetwide availability of 91.6%, supported by optimization in Alberta and Washington.

• Advanced Alberta data center strategy and recontracted three Ontario wind facilities, extending contracts to 2031 and 2034.

• Progressed Centralia Unit 2 redevelopment toward a definitive agreement for full capacity.

• Repurchased 1.9 million shares year-to-date at an average cost of $12.42.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA rose to $349 million in Q2 2025 from $316 million in Q2 2024, with Free Cash Flow steady at $177 million ($0.60/share).

• Hydro segment Adjusted EBITDA increased to $126 million from $83 million year-over-year.

• Energy Transition segment Adjusted EBITDA grew to $19 million from $2 million year-over-year.

• Fleetwide average availability was 91.6%.

• Reported net loss attributable to common shareholders of $112 million (–$0.38/share) versus net earnings of $56 million ($0.18/share) in Q2 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• Reaffirmed 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA ($1.15–$1.25 billion) and Free Cash Flow ($450–$550 million), supported by asset performance and hedging.

• Approximately 4,300 GWh of Alberta generation hedged for the remainder of 2025 at CAD 69/MWh, and 7,000 GWh hedged for 2026 at CAD 67/MWh, both well above current forward prices.

• Energy marketing gross margin expected between $110–$130 million for 2025.

• CO2 emissions reduction goal of 75% from 2015 levels by 2026.

• AESO expects Demand Transmission Service contracts for data centre integration to be executed by mid-September 2025.