TransAlta (TA) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong Q2 2025 operational and financial results, with adjusted EBITDA of $349 million and free cash flow of $177 million ($0.60/share), supported by Alberta portfolio hedging, asset optimization, and high fleet availability of 91.6%.

• Advanced strategic priorities, including Alberta data centre strategy, Centralia Unit 2 conversion negotiations, and recontracting Ontario wind facilities to 2031/2034.

• Completed Heartland Generation acquisition in December 2024, adding 1,747 MW to capacity, with related divestitures and Poplar Hill asset sale underway.

• Repurchased 1.93 million shares YTD at an average cost of $12.42, with up to $100 million allocated for buybacks.

• Reaffirmed 2025 financial outlook and guidance despite challenging Alberta price environment and reported net loss of $112 million for Q2 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $349 million (up 10% YoY); free cash flow was $177 million ($0.60/share), with average fleet availability at 91.6%.

• Revenues declined to $433 million in Q2 2025 (down 26% YoY); H1 2025 revenues were $1,191 million (down 22% YoY).

• Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $112 million for Q2 2025, compared to net earnings of $56 million in Q2 2024.

• Cash flow from operating activities for H1 2025 was $164 million, down from $352 million YoY.

• Weighted average number of common shares outstanding: 297 million for Q2 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1,150–$1,250 million and free cash flow of $450–$550 million.

• Approximately 4,300 GWh of Alberta generation hedged for the remainder of 2025 at $69/MWh, and 7,000 GWh hedged for 2026 at $67/MWh.

• Targeting fleet availability of 91.8% for 2025 and CO2 emissions reduction of 75% from 2015 levels by 2026.

• AESO expects Demand Transmission Service contracts for data centre integration to be executed by mid-September 2025.

• Dividend increased to $0.26/share annualized, reflecting an 8% rise.