TransAlta (TA) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered Adjusted EBITDA of $1.104 billion and free cash flow of $514 million ($1.73/share) in 2025, with fleet availability at 92.3% and an 8% dividend increase to $0.28 per share annualized for 2026.

• Record safety performance achieved, with Total Recordable Injury Frequency improving to 0.12 from 0.56 in 2024.

• Advanced strategic priorities, including the acquisition of Far North Power (310 MW in Ontario), integration of Heartland, and a major MOU for Alberta data centre development.

• Returned $0.34 per share, or 20% of FCF, to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

• Achieved a 75% reduction in GHG emissions intensity since 2015, meeting the 2026 target ahead of schedule.

Financial highlights

• 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $1.104 billion, down 12% year-over-year, with free cash flow of $514 million ($1.73/share), and revenues of $2,405 million, down 15% from 2024.

• Segment Adjusted EBITDA: Hydro $285M, Wind & Solar $338M (up 7%), Gas $438M (down 16%), Energy Transition $100M (up 12%), Energy Marketing $85M (down 42%), Corporate $(142)M.

• Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $190 million (–$0.64/share), compared to net earnings of $177 million ($0.59/share) in 2024.

• Operational availability improved to 92.3% in 2025 from 91.2% in 2024.

• Alberta merchant portfolio achieved premium pricing, with gas and hydro segments outperforming spot prices.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $950–$1,050 million; free cash flow: $350–$450 million ($1.18–$1.51/share); sustaining capital: $140–$160 million.

• Alberta spot power prices expected at $40–$60/MWh; AECO gas price: $2.65–$3.15/GJ.

• Lower contributions expected from Energy Transition and Alberta merchant gas, offset by higher Hydro, Gas (including Far North), and Wind & Solar.

• Substantially hedged for 2026, with average hedged power price at $65/MWh.

• 2026 priorities include advancing data centre and Centralia projects, optimizing Alberta fleet, and pursuing M&A.