TransAlta (TA) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $1,104 million and free cash flow was $514 million ($1.73/share); fleet availability reached 92.3%.

• Free cash flow exceeded the midpoint of guidance despite lower Alberta power prices and subdued market volatility.

• Annualized dividend increased 8% to $0.28 per share, the seventh consecutive annual increase.

• Advanced the Keephills data centre MOU and Centralia coal-to-gas conversion, and closed the Far North acquisition.

• Reduced Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 75% from 2015 levels, meeting the 2026 target ahead of schedule.

Financial highlights

• FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $1,104 million, down 12% year-over-year; Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $247 million.

• FY 2025 free cash flow was $514 million ($1.73/share), down from $575 million ($1.90/share) in 2024.

• Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $190 million ($0.64/share), versus net earnings of $177 million ($0.59/share) in 2024.

• 2025 revenue was $2,405 million, down 15% year-over-year; operating cash flow was $646 million, versus $796 million in 2024.

• Fleet availability improved to 92.3% from 91.2% in 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $950–$1,050 million; free cash flow: $350–$450 million ($1.18–$1.51/share).

• Alberta spot power price assumption: $40–$60/MWh; AECO gas price: $2.65–$3.15/GJ.

• 2026 average hedged power price: $65/MWh; Energy Marketing Adjusted Revenues guidance: $110–$130 million.

• Sustaining capital guidance: $140–$160 million; priorities include advancing data centre and Centralia projects, optimizing the Alberta fleet, and pursuing M&A.

• Lower contributions expected from Energy Transition and Alberta merchant gas; higher contributions expected from Hydro, Gas, and Wind & Solar.