TransAlta (TA) Q2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA was CAD 291 million and free cash flow CAD 143 million (CAD 0.47/share) in Q2 2026, with fleet availability at 90.2%.

• Strategic initiatives advanced, including data center development with CPP Investments and Brookfield, acquisition of Colorado gas facilities, and integration of Far North assets.

• Hedging and asset optimization offset softer Alberta merchant prices, with realized prices well above spot.

• Realigned executive management team, including new CEO Joel Hunter and other appointments.

• Reaffirmed 2026 outlook and guidance.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was CAD 291 million (down from CAD 349 million YoY); FCF was CAD 143 million (down 19% YoY).

• Hydro Adjusted EBITDA was CAD 87 million (down CAD 39 million YoY); Wind and Solar CAD 90 million (flat YoY); Gas CAD 142 million (up CAD 14 million YoY); Energy Marketing CAD 10 million (down CAD 16 million YoY); Energy Transition $(2) million.

• Alberta spot prices averaged CAD 29/MWh in Q2 2026, down from CAD 40/MWh in Q2 2025.

• Free cash flow per share was CAD 0.47 in Q2 2026.

• Cash flow from operating activities for Q2 2026 was CAD 62 million (down from CAD 157 million YoY).

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at CAD 950–1,050 million; FCF guidance at CAD 350–450 million; annualized dividend guidance at CAD 0.28/share.

• Alberta hedging strategy expected to provide cash flow stability; +/-CAD 1/MWh spot price change impacts Adjusted EBITDA by +/-CAD 1.5 million for the remainder of 2026.

• Approximately 4,500 GWh of Alberta generation hedged at CAD 64/MWh for the remainder of 2026; 6,600 GWh hedged at same price for 2027.

• Colorado acquisition not included in current guidance; expected to be accretive upon closing in Q4 2026.

• Expect additional segment contributions from carbon credits against in-year compliance costs.