TRATON (8TRA) Pre-Close Call Presentation summary

Market situation and recent trading

• EU truck registrations up 4% YTD February, aligning with outlook; demand strong at Scania and MAN, but some customer hesitation since Iran war.

• North America truck retail sales down 22% YTD February, but order uptick since December 2025; March orders strong, likely due to EPA27 pre-buy.

• South America truck registrations down 20% YTD January; Brazil's Move program boosted orders, especially for Scania and VWTB.

• China truck registrations up 45% YTD January, despite it being a historically low month.

• 2026 market outlook: EU +2.5%, North America +2.5%, China -2.5%, South America -5% (mid-point estimates).

Key topics and risks

• Limited direct exposure to Iran war region (~2% of sales); some deliveries postponed, supply chain impact manageable so far.

• Monitoring suppliers for evolving risks; energy and oil price impacts expected to show in late Q2.

• Too early to assess broader economic impacts from Iran war.

• Chinese competition in European diesel trucks limited for now, but electric truck entry expected within a year.

• Chinese firms gaining ground in electric city buses; new China hub aids competitive assessment.

Brand and operational developments

• Scania increased small-scale production in Europe (paused due to Iran war) and Brazil; first trucks delivered from China hub, aiming for 10,000 units in 2026.

• China operations expected to have €400 million P&L effect in 2026; break-even in China targeted for 2028.

• MAN production capacity unchanged; order intake supports European growth, but clarity needed on Iran, US demand, and tariffs.

• International aims for stable market share and higher margin in FY26, despite tariff impacts; Springfield, Ohio facility to be sold.

• Move Brazil program could further increase production.