UniCredit (UCG) 8th Annual European Perspectives Seminar: The Big Picture summary

Transformation and sector leadership

• Achieved 14 consecutive quarters of growth, reversing years of revenue decline and becoming the most efficient bank in Europe with a 36% cost-income ratio.

• Net profit increased from €900 million to €2.5 billion per quarter, with RoTE rising from 4.5% to 21%.

• Distribution to shareholders multiplied 14x since 2017-2019, reflecting sector leadership in KPIs.

• Transitioning from transformation to sustainable sector leadership, aiming for superior, profitable growth and outsized distribution.

• Ongoing transformation expected to drive further improvements over the next three to five years.

Business mix, geographic exposure, and growth strategy

• Geographic mix includes 45% in Italy, with strong profitability and high-quality earnings, plus significant presence in Austria, Germany, and Central/Eastern Europe.

• Fee-to-revenue base in Italy already at 40%, expected to grow further as NII comes under pressure.

• Business mix focused on quality growth, with the most profitable NII return among European banks.

• Internalization of life insurance in Italy approved, expected to contribute to earnings.

Financial guidance and capital distribution

• Confident in exceeding €9 billion net income in 2024, with potential to reach €10 billion excluding extraordinary items.

• Guidance for 2025 is to beat €9 billion net income, with sustainable growth expected from 2026 as rate and Russia effects subside.

• Capital distribution guidance remains at €8.6 billion for 2024, with more than €8.6 billion planned for 2025 and 2026.

• Dividend payout ratio to increase from 40% to 50% from 2025, raising cash yield to the top of the sector.

• Commitment to return excess capital above 13% to investors by 2027 remains unchanged.