UniCredit (UCG) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record net profit of €3.3bn in 2Q25 and €6.1bn in 1H25, marking the best half-year in history, driven by core revenue growth, cost discipline, and capital efficiency.

• ROTE reached 24.1% in 2Q25 and 23.1% in 1H25, with all regions contributing to profitable growth and offsetting macro headwinds.

• Upgraded 2025 and 2027 guidance, reflecting strong execution, new growth levers from internalization, integration, and equity consolidation.

• Strategic initiatives include internalization of Italian life insurance, integration of Alpha Bank Romania, digital banking acquisitions, and increased Commerzbank stake.

• Decision to withdraw BPM offer due to regulatory uncertainty, shifting focus to organic growth and value creation.

Financial highlights

• 1H25 net profit reached €6.1bn (+16.8% YoY), or €5.7bn excluding one-offs; 2Q25 net profit €3.3bn (+24.8% YoY).

• Net revenue for 1H25 was €12.9bn (+2.2% YoY ex. one-offs); core revenues up 1.3% YoY in Q2, 1.5% in H1; fees up 3.6% in H1.

• Cost/income ratio improved to 35.5% (ex. one-offs); operating costs at €4.6bn, up 0.7% YoY; costs down 1.4% excluding new entities.

• EPS up 26%, DPS up 31%, tangible book value per share up 19% YoY.

• CET1 ratio at 16.0–16.2% pro forma; cost of risk at 9–10bps for 1H25.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 net profit guidance raised to ~€10.5bn; net revenue above €23.5bn; ROTE ~20%.

• Cost guidance improved to below €9.6bn for 2025; cost of risk guidance at ~15bps.

• Distribution guidance upgraded to at least €9.5bn for 2025; dividend at least €4.75bn.

• 2027 ambition: at least €11bn net profit, >20% ROTE, cumulative distribution of at least €30bn (2025–2027).

• NII expected to decline mid-single digit YoY; fees to grow mid-single digit; 2027 ambition includes €1.4bn fee growth vs FY24.