United States Steel (X) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong 2024 performance despite a challenging macro environment, with strategic projects ramping up and a focus on closing the $55/share Nippon Steel merger.

• Legal action underway to address interference with the Nippon Steel transaction, which is expected to enhance global competitiveness and innovation.

• Q4 2024 net loss of $89M ($0.39/share); full-year 2024 net earnings of $384M ($1.57/share) and adjusted net earnings of $529M ($2.14/share), both down year-over-year.

• Over $4B in strategic growth capex completed, positioning for free cash flow inflection in 2025 and run-rate profitability in 2026.

• North American Flat-Rolled segment achieved a 10% EBITDA margin in Q4, aided by cost control and product mix; Mini Mill segment saw initial shipments from Big River 2 and delivered an 8% EBITDA margin after adjusting for ramp-up costs.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 reported net loss of $89M ($0.39 per diluted share); adjusted net loss of $28M ($0.13 per diluted share); adjusted EBITDA of $190M (5% margin).

• Full year 2024 reported net earnings of $384M (2% margin); adjusted net earnings of $529M (3% margin); adjusted EBITDA of $1,366M (9% margin).

• Q4 2024 net sales were $3.51B, down from $4.14B in Q4 2023; full-year 2024 net sales were $15.64B, down from $18.05B in 2023.

• Liquidity remains strong with ~$1.4B in cash and total estimated liquidity of $3.2B at year-end.

• Net debt increased to $2.8B at year-end 2024, up from $1.3B in 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA expected between $100M and $150M.

• North American Flat-Rolled segment faces seasonal and cost headwinds; improvement anticipated in Q2.

• Mini Mill segment to benefit from higher BR2 volumes but will incur $50M in ramp-related costs.

• U.S. Steel Europe expects slightly improved volumes; Tubular segment to see higher average selling prices.

• Positive free cash flow projected for 2025.