Upstart (UPST) Mizuho Technology Conference 2026 summary

Financial performance and outlook

• Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin was 13% ($40M), while full-year guidance is 21% ($294M), with profits expected to be back-half weighted due to seasonality, product mix, and early-year investments.

• Seasonality, a shift toward secured products (home and auto), and growth in super prime borrowers dampened take rates and contribution margins in Q1.

• Focus for the remainder of the year includes growing the core personal loan segment (sub 720 FICO), improving unit economics in new products, and leveraging operating efficiencies.

Bank charter plans

• Application for OCC and FDIC charter is underway, with a targeted launch in early 2027, pending regulatory approval.

• Becoming a bank aims to streamline origination, reduce regulatory complexity, and lower costs, while maintaining a capital-light model.

• Additional benefits include modest cost of capital improvements and enhanced regulatory dialogue, especially around AI in credit.

Consumer credit environment

• The U.S. consumer is in a multi-year normalization cycle post-COVID, with default rates still above pre-pandemic levels.

• Upstart Macro Index (UMI) has stabilized in the 1.4–1.5 range, indicating 1.4–1.5x higher default rates versus pre-COVID, with recent readings showing moderate improvement.

• UMI is seasonally adjusted, and recent fluctuations are within normal monthly variation.