Vale (VALE3) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Priorities remained operational excellence, cost competitiveness, resilience and value over volume amid volatile markets.

• Pro forma EBITDA was $3.508B, down 20% YoY, as weaker iron ore pricing and higher costs outweighed stronger copper prices.

• Production guidance was reaffirmed across the portfolio; iron ore was expected at the lower end, with copper and nickel in the upper half of their ranges.

Financial highlights

• Net operating revenue rose 2% YoY to $10.599B; gross profit was $2.659B, down 30%, and operating income fell 43% to $1.593B.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $3.327B, down 24% YoY; attributable net income was $1.255B, down 53%, with EPS of $0.29 versus $0.63.

• Recurring free cash flow was $1.373B and total free cash flow was $2.230B, including $857M of non-recurring events.

• 9M26 revenue was $30.355B, up 11% YoY; pro forma EBITDA rose 4% to $11.469B, while attributable net income declined 27% to $4.523B.

• Base Metals adjusted EBITDA rose 61% YoY to $1.105B, partly offsetting weaker Iron Ore Solutions earnings.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 iron ore production guidance of 335–345 Mt was reaffirmed, with output expected at the lower end; Q4 recovery was expected from higher Serra Norte output and the Fábrica restart.

• Copper guidance of 360–380 kt and nickel guidance of 185–200 kt were reaffirmed, with both expected in the upper half of their ranges.

• Pellet guidance of 30–34 Mt was reaffirmed at the midpoint; iron ore C1 and all-in cost guidance remained $22.5–$23.5/t and $58–$62/t.

• Copper all-in cost guidance was $0.0–$0.5k/t and nickel guidance $10.0–$11.5k/t; 2026 CAPEX was expected toward the lower end of $5.4B–$5.7B.

• Salobo CPF startup is planned for 1H28; Serra Sul +20 and Compact Crushing are expected to support operating flexibility from 2027.