Ventas (VTR) BofA Securities 2025 Global Real Estate Conference summary

Market Trends and Demand Drivers

• Demographic shifts, especially the aging baby boomer population, are accelerating demand for senior housing, with a significant inflection expected in 2026 as more individuals turn 80.

• U.S. 80+ population is expected to grow 28% over the next five years, fueling demand for senior housing.

• Senior housing faces historically low supply, with annual deliveries well below projected population growth, creating strong tailwinds for occupancy and pricing power.

• Net demand is outpacing net absorption in several markets, leading to the possibility of 100% occupancy in some areas.

• The sector is experiencing multi-year double-digit NOI growth, with expectations for continued strong performance.

Financial Performance and Growth Strategy

• Guidance for 2024 and 2025 is ~8% FFO per share growth, with 2025 normalized FFO per share expected at $3.44 midpoint.

• Dividend growth and multiple expansion are seen as future opportunities, supported by a strong and improving balance sheet.

• The company is executing a three-part strategy: organic growth from senior housing operations, accretive external acquisitions, and driving performance across the broader portfolio.

• $1.8B in senior housing investments have closed YTD 2025, with a line of sight to an additional $0.5B above the $2.0B 2025 guidance.

• Investments are focused on high-growth markets, newer assets, and high-quality operators, with expected year-one NOI yield of ~7.1% and low-to-mid teens unlevered IRR.

Operational Highlights and Portfolio Management

• Quarter-to-date, U.S. portfolio occupancy increased by 270 basis points year-over-year, driven by strong move-ins across geographies and asset classes.

• SHOP same-store average occupancy reached 88.1% in June, surpassing pre-COVID levels.

• The Brookdale Senior Living portfolio is being partially converted to SHOP, with 45 assets targeted to double NOI from $50 million to over $100 million after CapEx investments; 11 NNN-to-SHOP conversions completed in September, with more transitions expected through 4Q25.

• CapEx for these transitions averages $2 million per asset, with the goal to complete upgrades by the 2026 key selling season.

• Proprietary analytics and AI-enabled tools are being adopted to optimize pricing, market selection, operator performance, and resident experience.