VEON (VEON) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2024 revenue reached $1,038 million, up 9.8% year-over-year in USD and 14.1% in local currency, driven by strong digital and multiplay growth, especially in Pakistan and Kazakhstan.

• Direct digital revenue surged 35.1% year-over-year to $121 million, now 12% of total revenue, with 103 million digital monthly active users and 99.9 million 4G users (+7.7% YoY).

• EBITDA was $438 million, down 1.5% year-over-year in USD but up 3.5% in local currency, impacted by one-off items in Bangladesh and HQ restructuring.

• Multiplay and 4G user growth continued, supporting ARPU and retention improvements, with multiplay segment revenue up 26% YoY (+31% in local currency).

• Capex increased 51.2% year-over-year to $198 million, with LTM capex intensity at 19.2%.

Financial highlights

• Telecom and infrastructure revenue was $916 million (+7.2% YoY in USD, +12.2% in local currency).

• Group EBITDA for Q3 was $438 million, with a margin of 42.2%, down 4.9 percentage points year-over-year.

• Cash and cash equivalents stood at $1,019 million, with $453 million at HQ.

• Gross debt was $3.99 billion, up $30 million sequentially, mainly due to new debt in Pakistan and Kazakhstan; average cost of debt at 12.1%, average maturity 2.7 years (3.3 years including leases).

• Net debt (excluding leases) was $2.1 billion, with net debt/EBITDA at 1.5x.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2024 revenue growth expected at 8–10% in USD and 12–14% in local currency; EBITDA growth forecast at 4–6% in USD and 9–11% in local currency.

• Underlying local currency growth expected at 15–16% for revenue and 10–11% for EBITDA, excluding identified items.

• Guidance revised downward from previous 16–18% revenue and 18–20% EBITDA growth in local currency, reflecting lower inflation, Bangladesh unrest, and Kazakhstan asset sale.

• LTM capex intensity expected at 18–19%.

• Real GDP growth in markets at 3.4% for the period.