Veracyte (VCYT) Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2025 summary

Business performance and portfolio focus

• Decipher volumes grew 45% and Afirma 8%, with strong guidance of $74.08 million for the quarter.

• Decipher and Afirma now represent 95% of revenue, with a focus on high-ROI investments and portfolio optimization.

• De-emphasized assays like Percepta GSC and Envisia due to limited market size and high evidence requirements.

• Decipher Metastatic and MRD for muscle invasive bladder cancer will be added to the portfolio, expanding the urology channel.

• Three long-term growth drivers identified: MRD, nasal swab, and IVD strategy, with a diversified portfolio expected in 3–5 years.

France SAS exit and IVD strategy

• Revenue from the French SAS business declined over 60% due to macroeconomic and technological shifts.

• Considering ceasing funding for Veracyte SAS, with ongoing Works Council engagement and efforts to sell the business.

• Manufacturing of Prosigna is a priority; continuity of supply is a key goal during the transition.

• If no buyer is found, bankruptcy is possible, risking $4 million in quarterly revenue but improving EBITDA by $13 million.

• IVD development will shift to the U.S., with reinvestment planned and no change to the overall IVD strategy.

Growth outlook and competitive landscape

• Decipher guided for 19–22% revenue growth in 2025, with volume growth moderating due to law of large numbers and prior period collection headwinds.

• Decipher Metastatic targets 10% of prostate cancer incidence, launching in H1 2025 with gradual contribution.

• ASP for Decipher expected to be a tailwind over five years, though 2025 faces headwinds from prior period collections.

• Four main competitors in Decipher's market; Decipher holds leading share, with digital pathology seen as complementary.

• Afirma maintains leading share in thyroid, with high single-digit growth guided and new GRID version launching in H2 2025.