Vista Energy (VISTAA) Investor Day 2025 summary

Strategic Vision and Growth Targets

• Production is set to rise from 114,000 BOE/day in 2025 to 180,000 by 2028, with a 2030 target above 200,000 BOE/day, 33% higher than prior guidance and representing a 3x increase since 2021.

• Adjusted EBITDA is projected to grow 75% from $1.6B in 2025 to $2.8B in 2028, with an average margin of ~65%.

• Cumulative Free Cash Flow of $1.5B is expected between 2026-2028, with recurring Free Cash Flow reaching $1.5B/year by 2030, assuming Brent at $70.

• Export-driven model will see export revenues double to $3.2B by 2028, with oil exports comprising up to 75% of total volumes.

• Growth is fully self-funded, with CAPEX of $1.5–$1.6B/year and all operational capacity secured.

Operational Excellence and Innovation

• Well inventory increased to 1,653, providing a 10-year runway with breakeven below $45/bbl and further upside from new landing zones.

• Drilling and completion costs reduced from $14.2M/well in 2024 to $12.3M, targeting $11M by 2028 through technology and process optimization.

• Productivity per well outperforms Vaca Muerta and Permian averages, with new pilots adding 180 wells to inventory and de-risking 18,000 acres.

• Real-time AI-driven completion optimization and bulk wet sand logistics have cut costs by $600,000/well.

• Achieved industry-leading well productivity and cost reductions through supply chain and technological innovation, including proprietary AI-driven monitoring tools.

Financial Discipline and Shareholder Returns

• ROSI and ROACE are forecast to remain above 20%, with historical average at 31% since 2021.

• Net leverage ratio to decline from 1.5x to below 1x by 2028, with gross debt stable, average maturity of 4.5 years, and average cost of debt at 6.7%.

• Free Cash Flow break-even Brent price drops from ~$58 in 2025 to ~$45 by 2028.

• Capital allocation prioritizes share buybacks and dividends, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and synergetic M&A in Vaca Muerta.

• Business model is resilient to oil price volatility, with robust free cash flow generation even in lower price scenarios.